Jonkopings Sodra 0-5 Halmstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Halmstad at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jonkopings Sodra vs Halmstad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Halmstad make the trip to Stadsparksvallen to face Jonkopings Sodra in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Jonkopings Sodra (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's home record at Stadsparksvallen: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Halmstad have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Halmstad's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Halmstad are 1.00 PPG clear of Jonkopings Sodra in recent Superettan fixtures (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jonkopings Sodra have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Halmstad in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Jonkopings Sodra, 1 for Halmstad and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2022, ended 0–3 with Halmstad winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jonkopings Sodra — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Halmstad — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 56% versus Halmstad 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 50% | Halmstad 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.27 xG and Halmstad 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.995 / defence 1.225 | Halmstad attack 1.387 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.276. Halmstad have an above-average attack strength of 1.387 — the away xG of 2.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Jonkopings Sodra games / 18 Halmstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 21% | Draw 22% | Halmstad 57%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 4.76 | Draw 4.55 | Halmstad 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Halmstad (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Halmstad are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 70% | Halmstad 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Halmstad | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 21% | Draw 22% | Halmstad 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.27 / Halmstad 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.995 / def 1.225 | Halmstad attack 1.387 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Halmstad (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Halmstad xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Halmstad kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Halmstad kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Halmstad?
Jonkopings Sodra 0 - 5 Halmstad.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Halmstad being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Halmstad part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Halmstad is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Halmstad?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 21% chance of winning, Halmstad a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Halmstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Halmstad?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Halmstad will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Halmstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Halmstad?
Record (1 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 0W | Draws 0 | Halmstad 1W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Halmstad in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Halmstad (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra's attack at 0.99x the league average against Halmstad's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Halmstad's attack (1.39x) against Jonkopings Sodra's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 2.17.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
21%
4.70
22%
4.64
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
3.44
2.17
Halmstad xG
4.70
21%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
11%
8.73
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
2%
41.07
16%
6.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Halmstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Halmstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 2.17 for Halmstad, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Halmstad?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jonkopings Sodra come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 12D 21L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Halmstad sit at 1.52 PPG from 48 outings (19W 16D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Jonkopings Sodra against 1.52 for Halmstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Jonkopings Sodra's home form reads 9W 6D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Halmstad have taken 1.50 points per game from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Halmstad are on 1.31 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
Halmstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Halmstad in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 15W 12D 21L in their last 48 games (1.19 PPG), while Halmstad have gone 19W 16D 13L in their last 48 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Halmstad away?
Halmstad's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.38 PPG; Halmstad away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Jonkopings Sodra or Halmstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jonkopings Sodra have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Halmstad in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Jonkopings Sodra
0
Draws
2
Halmstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Halmstad?
From 2 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, Halmstad have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Halmstad last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2022, when Jonkopings Sodra 0-5 Halmstad.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Halmstad?
Halmstad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 58%, Halmstad 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 46% (Halmstad).
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 33% of games; Halmstad in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Halmstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Halmstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent matches and 50% of Halmstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Halmstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent games and 46% of Halmstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Halmstad tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Halmstad in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Halmstad run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Jonkopings Sodra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Halmstad beat Jonkopings Sodra 0-5 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.27 xG and Halmstad 2.17 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Halmstad outscored their 2.17 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.99 / defence 1.23 against Halmstad attack 1.39 / defence 0.92, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 21% | Draw 22% | Halmstad 57%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 50%, Halmstad 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Halmstad's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.19 PPG, Halmstad 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Halmstad win broke the near-deadlock. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Halmstad (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.