IK brage 4-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 6 as IK brage welcome Orgryte IS to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IK brage — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
IK brage's home record at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IK brage at 1.80 PPG versus Orgryte IS's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for IK brage, 1 for Orgryte IS and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IK brage 57% and Orgryte IS 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 57% | Orgryte IS 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 2.13 xG and Orgryte IS 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.163 / defence 0.934 | Orgryte IS attack 1.170 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.390. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing IK brage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 IK brage games / 35 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 52% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 27%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | Orgryte IS 3.70. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 50% | Orgryte IS 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 52% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG IK brage 2.13 / Orgryte IS 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.163 / def 0.934 | Orgryte IS attack 1.170 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: IK brage (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Orgryte IS xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Orgryte IS kick off?
IK brage vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
IK brage 4 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is IK brage vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Orgryte IS part of?
IK brage vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 52% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both IK brage and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Orgryte IS?
Record (2 meetings): IK brage 0W | Draws 1 | Orgryte IS 1W.
What form are IK brage and Orgryte IS in?
IK brage (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IK brage's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
52%
1.93
21%
4.80
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
IK brage xG
Total xG
3.65
1.52
Orgryte IS xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
12%
8.41
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
3%
30.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are IK brage and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for IK brage and 1.52 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IK brage come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 9D 11L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (9W 14D 7L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.30 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IK brage's home form reads 6W 4D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.33 points per game from 15 outings (5W 5D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 9W 14D 7L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Orgryte IS away?
IK brage's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.47 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 23 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2022, when IK brage won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IK brage
3
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Orgryte IS?
From 10 meetings on record, IK brage have won 4, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2025, when Orgryte IS 2-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Orgryte IS?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 47%, Orgryte IS 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (IK brage) and 53% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; IK brage have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of IK brage's games and 67% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of IK brage's recent games and 53% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IK brage run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Orgryte IS 4-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 2.13 xG and Orgryte IS 1.52 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orgryte IS landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.16 / defence 0.93 against Orgryte IS attack 1.17 / defence 1.28, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 52% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 27%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 57%, Orgryte IS 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.30 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.