IFK Varnamo 2-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Finnvedsvallen plays host to IFK Varnamo versus GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 18 April 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.16 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.968 / defence 1.150 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 0.858. Data: 1 IFK Varnamo games / 1 GIF Sundsvall games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 43% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 26%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | GIF Sundsvall 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 43% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.16 / GIF Sundsvall 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.968 / def 1.150 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.044 / away 0.858 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.84
GIF Sundsvall xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 April 2021 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall?
IFK Varnamo 2 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 43% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.97x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.85x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
43%
2.31
30%
3.30
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.00
0.84
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
8%
12.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.84 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
IFK Varnamo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Varnamo won 3-0 on 14 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall?
From 5 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2026, when IFK Varnamo 3-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Varnamo edge out GIF Sundsvall 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat GIF Sundsvall 2-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.16 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.84 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 43% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 26%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.