Helsingborg 0-0 Vasalund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helsingborg at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Vasalund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Helsingborg host Vasalund at Olympia in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Helsingborg have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helsingborg have posted 5W 1D 4L at Olympia — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympia this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasalund stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasalund away from home this season: 1W 0D 7L from 8 away games — 0.38 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.38 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Helsingborg have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Helsingborg, 0 for Vasalund and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Helsingborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Vasalund in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 25% versus Vasalund 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 44% | Vasalund 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 2.08 xG and Vasalund 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 1.133 / defence 1.153 | Vasalund attack 0.840 / defence 1.603. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.041. Vasalund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.603 — this is suppressing Helsingborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Helsingborg games / 16 Vasalund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 62% | Draw 20% | Vasalund 17%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Vasalund 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Helsingborg (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Helsingborg 30% | Vasalund 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Vasalund | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Monday 23 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 62% | Draw 20% | Vasalund 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Helsingborg 2.08 / Vasalund 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 1.133 / def 1.153 | Vasalund attack 0.840 / def 1.603 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Vasalund xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Vasalund kick off?
Helsingborg vs Vasalund kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 August 2021 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Vasalund?
Helsingborg 0 - 0 Vasalund.
Where is Helsingborg vs Vasalund being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Vasalund part of?
Helsingborg vs Vasalund is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Vasalund?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 62% chance of winning, Vasalund a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Vasalund?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Helsingborg and Vasalund will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Vasalund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Vasalund?
Record (1 meetings): Helsingborg 1W | Draws 0 | Vasalund 0W.
What form are Helsingborg and Vasalund in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Vasalund (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 1.13x the league average against Vasalund's defence at 1.60x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasalund's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
62%
1.61
20%
4.89
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
3.09
1.01
Vasalund xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
12%
8.03
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
2%
45.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Vasalund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Vasalund expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.01 for Vasalund, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Vasalund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 9W 3D 4L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasalund's form line: 5W 1D 10L from 16 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Helsingborg are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vasalund.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.88 PPG from 8 outings (5W 0D 3L).
On the road, Vasalund have gone 1W 0D 7L from 8 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasalund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helsingborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Helsingborg are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Vasalund are on 1.31 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helsingborg have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Vasalund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Vasalund in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 9W 3D 4L in their last 16 games (1.88 PPG), while Vasalund have gone 5W 1D 10L in their last 16 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Vasalund away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.88 PPG; Vasalund away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Vasalund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Vasalund in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helsingborg and Vasalund runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Helsingborg
1
Draws
0
Vasalund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Vasalund?
From 2 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 1, Vasalund have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Vasalund last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2021, when Helsingborg 0-0 Vasalund.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Vasalund?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Vasalund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 38%, Vasalund 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Helsingborg and 75% for Vasalund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Vasalund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Vasalund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 62% of Vasalund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Vasalund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Helsingborg's matches and 75% of Vasalund's.
Do Helsingborg and Vasalund tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Vasalund in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Helsingborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympia, Regular Season - 17, as Helsingborg and Vasalund drew 0-0 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 2.08 xG and Vasalund 1.01 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Helsingborg fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Vasalund landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 1.13 / defence 1.15 against Vasalund attack 0.84 / defence 1.60, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 62% | Draw 20% | Vasalund 17%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 44%, Vasalund 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vasalund's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Helsingborg arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Vasalund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.