Helsingborg 0-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Ostersunds FK travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Helsingborg at Olympia this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Helsingborg at 1.50 PPG versus Ostersunds FK's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Helsingborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ostersunds FK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Helsingborg, 2 for Ostersunds FK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Ostersunds FK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 52% versus Ostersunds FK 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 45% | Ostersunds FK 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.38 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.971 / defence 1.025 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.797 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 0.919. Data: 34 Helsingborg games / 34 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 51% | Draw 29% | Ostersunds FK 20%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Ostersunds FK 5.00. Helsingborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 0.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Helsingborg 60% | Ostersunds FK 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 51% | Draw 29% | Ostersunds FK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Helsingborg 1.38 / Ostersunds FK 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.971 / def 1.025 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.797 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.374 / away 0.919 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Ostersunds FK xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Helsingborg 0 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 51% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK?
Record (4 meetings): Helsingborg 1W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 2W.
What form are Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Helsingborg's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
51%
1.95
29%
3.47
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.13
0.75
Ostersunds FK xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
5%
19.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.3 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Helsingborg and 0.75 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 12W 14D 34L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 18W 22D 20L from 60 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Ostersunds FK are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helsingborg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.00 PPG from 30 outings (8W 6D 16L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 11D 13L from 30 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Helsingborg are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.27 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 12W 14D 34L in their last 60 games (0.83 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 22D 20L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.00 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Helsingborg's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Helsingborg
4
Draws
3
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK?
From 9 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Helsingborg 2-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 47%, Ostersunds FK 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Helsingborg) and 37% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg have failed to score in 37% of games; Ostersunds FK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 53% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Helsingborg's recent games and 37% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Helsingborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympia, Regular Season - 5, as Helsingborg and Ostersunds FK drew 0-0 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.38 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.75 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Helsingborg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.80 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 51% | Draw 29% | Ostersunds FK 20%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 45%, Ostersunds FK 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ostersunds FK arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.