Helsingborg 0-0 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helsingborg at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Oddevold encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Oddevold travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg. The game is scheduled for Thursday 19 September 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Olympia this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympia this season.
Across all Superettan games this season, Oddevold have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Helsingborg have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Helsingborg have won 1, Oddevold 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2024, ended 3–0 with Helsingborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Helsingborg in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Oddevold in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 41% versus Oddevold 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 50% | Oddevold 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.60 xG and Oddevold 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.811 / defence 1.039 | Oddevold attack 0.915 / defence 1.414. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.247. Oddevold bring a strong defensive rating of 1.414 — this is suppressing Helsingborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Helsingborg games / 22 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 46% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 28%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Oddevold 3.57. Helsingborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helsingborg are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Helsingborg 40% | Oddevold 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 46% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Helsingborg 1.60 / Oddevold 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.811 / def 1.039 | Oddevold attack 0.915 / def 1.414 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Oddevold xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Oddevold kick off?
Helsingborg vs Oddevold kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 19 September 2024 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Oddevold?
Helsingborg 0 - 0 Oddevold.
Where is Helsingborg vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Oddevold part of?
Helsingborg vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 46% chance of winning, Oddevold a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Helsingborg and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Oddevold?
Record (1 meetings): Helsingborg 1W | Draws 0 | Oddevold 0W.
What form are Helsingborg and Oddevold in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Oddevold (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Helsingborg's attack rating (0.81) and Oddevold's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.83
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.79
1.19
Oddevold xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
6%
18.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.19 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helsingborg come into this having played 22 games, going 10W 6D 6L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oddevold sit at 1.14 PPG from 22 outings (6W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Oddevold — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Helsingborg's home form reads 3W 5D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Oddevold have taken 0.82 points per game from 11 outings (2W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helsingborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Helsingborg are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.18 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold in 64%.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Oddevold
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Oddevold in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 10W 6D 6L in their last 22 games (1.64 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Oddevold away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.27 PPG; Oddevold away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Oddevold been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Oddevold in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2024, when Helsingborg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helsingborg's record when hosting Oddevold specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Helsingborg
2
Draws
1
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Oddevold?
From 5 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 2, Oddevold have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Helsingborg 2-2 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Oddevold?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 46%, Oddevold 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Helsingborg) and 82% (Oddevold).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg have failed to score in 36% of games; Oddevold in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Oddevold?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 64% of Oddevold's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Helsingborg's recent games and 82% of Oddevold's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Oddevold tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Helsingborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg and Oddevold finished level at 0-0 at Olympia, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.60 xG and Oddevold 1.19 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Helsingborg fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Oddevold landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.81 / defence 1.04 against Oddevold attack 0.92 / defence 1.41, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 46% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 28%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 50%, Oddevold 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oddevold's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Helsingborg arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.