Helsingborg 1-2 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 29 August 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Helsingborg have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Olympia this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympia this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Helsingborg) versus 1.10 (Landskrona BoIS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Helsingborg, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Helsingborg in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 53% versus Landskrona BoIS 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 47% | Landskrona BoIS 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.36 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.758 / defence 1.253 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.943 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.180. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Helsingborg games / 49 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 35% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 37%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Landskrona BoIS 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Helsingborg 40% | Landskrona BoIS 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 35% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Helsingborg 1.36 / Landskrona BoIS 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.758 / def 1.253 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.943 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Landskrona BoIS xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 29 August 2023 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Helsingborg 1 - 2 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 35% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (3 meetings): Helsingborg 2W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Helsingborg's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
35%
2.82
28%
3.60
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.76
1.39
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
9%
11.37
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.39 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 8W 11D 30L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 18W 14D 17L from 49 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helsingborg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 0.71 PPG from 24 outings (4W 5D 15L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 5W 7D 12L from 24 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
The Goals Picture
Helsingborg are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 8W 11D 30L in their last 49 games (0.71 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 18W 14D 17L in their last 49 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Landskrona BoIS's away record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 0.71 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 11 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2026, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helsingborg's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Helsingborg
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2026, when Helsingborg 0-3 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 46%, Landskrona BoIS 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Helsingborg) and 50% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg have failed to score in 42% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 46% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Helsingborg's recent games and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Helsingborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Helsingborg 1-2 at Olympia, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.36 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.39 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.76 / defence 1.25 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.94 / defence 1.17, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 35% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 37%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 47%, Landskrona BoIS 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.