Hammarby Talang 1-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby Talang at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby Talang vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Final sees Orebro SK travel to Hammarby IP to take on Hammarby Talang. The game is scheduled for Thursday 20 November 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Orebro SK away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby Talang 1.64 xG and Orebro SK 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby Talang attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Orebro SK attack 1.133 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.252. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Hammarby Talang's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Hammarby Talang games / 60 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby Talang 38% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 37%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby Talang 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Orebro SK 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby Talang as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby Talang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby Talang vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Final | Venue: Hammarby IP • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby Talang 38% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Hammarby Talang 1.64 / Orebro SK 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby Talang attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Orebro SK attack 1.133 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Hammarby Talang (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Hammarby Talang xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Orebro SK xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby Talang vs Orebro SK kick off?
Hammarby Talang vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 20 November 2025 at Hammarby IP.
What was the final score in Hammarby Talang vs Orebro SK?
Hammarby Talang 1 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Hammarby Talang vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Hammarby IP.
What competition is Hammarby Talang vs Orebro SK part of?
Hammarby Talang vs Orebro SK is a Final fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby Talang vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby Talang a 38% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hammarby Talang the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby Talang vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Hammarby Talang and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby Talang vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby Talang and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby Talang and Orebro SK in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Orebro SK away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hammarby Talang's attack rating (0.85) and Orebro SK's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Hammarby Talang's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby Talang Win
38%
2.64
25%
4.06
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Hammarby Talang xG
Total xG
3.27
1.63
Orebro SK xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
7%
13.49
7%
13.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby Talang vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Hammarby Talang and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Hammarby Talang and 1.63 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby Talang vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby Talang
Pre-Season
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby Talang and Orebro SK runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hammarby Talang
0
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby Talang and Orebro SK?
From 2 meetings on record, Hammarby Talang have won 1, Orebro SK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby Talang and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Orebro SK 1-0 Hammarby Talang.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby Talang home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Hammarby Talang edge out Orebro SK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby Talang beat Orebro SK 1-0 at Hammarby IP, Final, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby Talang 1.64 xG and Orebro SK 1.63 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Orebro SK landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby Talang attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Orebro SK attack 1.13 / defence 1.23, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby Talang 38% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 37%, with Hammarby Talang to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.