GIF Sundsvall 1-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus Vasteras SK FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Monday 21 June 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.45 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.354 / defence 1.238 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.748 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 0.904 / away 1.024. GIF Sundsvall carry an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 GIF Sundsvall games / 10 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 49% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 25%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Vasteras SK FK 4.00. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 21 Jun 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 49% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.45 / Vasteras SK FK 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.354 / def 1.238 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.748 / def 1.189 | league avg home 0.904 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Vasteras SK FK xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 21 June 2021 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Vasteras SK FK?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 49% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Vasteras SK FK in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (0.75x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.77
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.40
0.95
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
6%
17.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.95 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Vasteras SK FK go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
4
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Vasteras SK FK?
From 6 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Vasteras SK FK 2-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as GIF Sundsvall edge out Vasteras SK FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Vasteras SK FK 1-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.45 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.95 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vasteras SK FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.35 / defence 1.24 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.75 / defence 1.19, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 49% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 25%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.