GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC make the trip to NP3 Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
GIF Sundsvall's home record at NP3 Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Varbergs BoIS FC haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for GIF Sundsvall, 1.30 for Varbergs BoIS FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — GIF Sundsvall register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: GIF Sundsvall 0W, Varbergs BoIS FC 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 1–3 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 50% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 53% | Varbergs BoIS FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.96 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.127 / defence 0.966 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.796 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 0.894. Varbergs BoIS FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 GIF Sundsvall games / 4 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 67% | Draw 21% | Varbergs BoIS FC 12%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Varbergs BoIS FC 8.33. The model has a clear lean to GIF Sundsvall (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 43% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: GIF Sundsvall 70% | Varbergs BoIS FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 67% | Draw 21% | Varbergs BoIS FC 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 43% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.96 / Varbergs BoIS FC 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.127 / def 0.966 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.796 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.391 / away 0.894 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
43%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 67% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (2 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 0 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (0.80x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.71
12%
8.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.65
0.69
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
8.52
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
34%
2.97
2%
60.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 9.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.69 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 9W 8D 15L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 10W 7D 15L from 32 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. Varbergs BoIS FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.16 for Varbergs BoIS FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 1.25 PPG from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 5W 2D 9L from 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.09 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 9W 8D 15L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 10W 7D 15L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.25 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Varbergs BoIS FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 3-0 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 7 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 62%, Varbergs BoIS FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (GIF Sundsvall) and 62% (Varbergs BoIS FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 62% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 62% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 5, as GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC drew 1-1 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.96 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.69 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.13 / defence 0.97 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.25, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 67% | Draw 21% | Varbergs BoIS FC 12%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 53%, Varbergs BoIS FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.09 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.