GIF Sundsvall 2-2 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Orebro SK make the trip to NP3 Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at NP3 Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Orebro SK have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orebro SK have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.30 for Orebro SK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 54% versus Orebro SK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 64% | Orebro SK 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.47 xG and Orebro SK 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.810 / defence 1.463 | Orebro SK attack 0.928 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.082. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 GIF Sundsvall games / 44 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 38% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 38%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Orebro SK 2.63. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Orebro SK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 38% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.47 / Orebro SK 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.810 / def 1.463 | Orebro SK attack 0.928 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Orebro SK xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Orebro SK kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Orebro SK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Orebro SK?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 2 Orebro SK.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Orebro SK part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 38% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Orebro SK in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.81) and Orebro SK's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.93x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
38%
2.66
25%
4.07
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.94
1.47
Orebro SK xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
9%
11.56
9%
11.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.47 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 0.68 PPG on a 9W 3D 32L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK's form line: 13W 13D 18L from 44 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Orebro SK are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIF Sundsvall.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 0.90 PPG from 21 outings (6W 1D 14L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 5W 5D 11L from 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.41 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.02 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 9W 3D 32L in their last 44 games (0.68 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Orebro SK away?
Orebro SK's away record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 0.90 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.95 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 10 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
GIF Sundsvall
3
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Orebro SK?
From 7 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, Orebro SK have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 10 June 2026, when Orebro SK 0-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Orebro SK?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 62%, Orebro SK 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (GIF Sundsvall) and 52% (Orebro SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 48% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 52% of Orebro SK's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Orebro SK tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall and Orebro SK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 15, as GIF Sundsvall and Orebro SK drew 2-2 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.47 xG and Orebro SK 1.47 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.81 / defence 1.46 against Orebro SK attack 0.93 / defence 1.26, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 38% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 38%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 64%, Orebro SK 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Orebro SK arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.