GIF Sundsvall 1-2 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Jonkopings Sodra at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 1 June 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.58 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.360 / defence 1.216 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.660 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 0.887 / away 1.049. GIF Sundsvall carry an above-average attack strength of 1.360 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 GIF Sundsvall games / 7 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 55% | Draw 25% | Jonkopings Sodra 20%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Jonkopings Sodra 5.00. The model has a clear lean to GIF Sundsvall (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Jun 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 55% | Draw 25% | Jonkopings Sodra 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.58 / Jonkopings Sodra 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.360 / def 1.216 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.660 / def 1.310 | league avg home 0.887 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Jonkopings Sodra xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 1 June 2021 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 55% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Jonkopings Sodra's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
55%
1.82
25%
3.96
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.42
0.84
Jonkopings Sodra xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
24.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.8 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.84 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
Jonkopings Sodra
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
2
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 4 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2023, when GIF Sundsvall 3-2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Jonkopings Sodra defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.58 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.84 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.36 / defence 1.22 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.66 / defence 1.31, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 55% | Draw 25% | Jonkopings Sodra 20%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Jonkopings Sodra win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.