GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Helsingborg (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as GIF Sundsvall face Helsingborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus Helsingborg in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 15 August 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 2W 1D 7L at NP3 Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Helsingborg's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Helsingborg are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — GIF Sundsvall register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Helsingborg in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Helsingborg, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Jun 2026, ended 2–5 with Helsingborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Helsingborg have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Helsingborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 52% versus Helsingborg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 54% | Helsingborg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.44 xG and Helsingborg 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.780 / defence 1.425 | Helsingborg attack 1.101 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.351. GIF Sundsvall's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Helsingborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 GIF Sundsvall games / 48 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 26% | Draw 21% | Helsingborg 53%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.85 | Draw 4.76 | Helsingborg 1.89. Helsingborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 2.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Helsingborg as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.56 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 70% | Helsingborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 26% | Draw 21% | Helsingborg 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.44 / Helsingborg 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.780 / def 1.425 | Helsingborg attack 1.101 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Helsingborg xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 1 Helsingborg.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 26% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 53% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg?
Record (9 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 2 | Helsingborg 6W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.78) and Helsingborg's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (1.10x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 2.12.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
26%
3.84
21%
4.79
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.56
2.12
Helsingborg xG
3.84
26%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
12%
8.33
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
3%
32.02
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 2.12 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 48 games, going 14W 7D 27L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Helsingborg sit at 1.35 PPG from 48 outings (18W 11D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.35 for Helsingborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 5W 5D 13L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Helsingborg have taken 1.26 points per game from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.52 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 14W 7D 27L in their last 48 games (1.02 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 18W 11D 19L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Helsingborg away?
Helsingborg's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 0.87 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 5-2 on 21 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
3
Draws
6
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg?
From 10 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Helsingborg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 65%, Helsingborg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (GIF Sundsvall) and 56% (Helsingborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall have failed to score in 30% of games; Helsingborg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Helsingborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 52% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 56% of Helsingborg's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg finished level at 1-1 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.44 xG and Helsingborg 2.12 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Helsingborg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.78 / defence 1.43 against Helsingborg attack 1.10 / defence 1.29, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 26% | Draw 21% | Helsingborg 53%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 54%, Helsingborg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Helsingborg's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.02 PPG, Helsingborg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.