GIF Sundsvall 2-0 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus Helsingborg in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 5W 2D 3L at NP3 Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Helsingborg's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Helsingborg away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in GIF Sundsvall's favour (1.90 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Helsingborg, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Helsingborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Helsingborg have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Helsingborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 48% versus Helsingborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 50% | Helsingborg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.48 xG and Helsingborg 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.978 / defence 0.972 | Helsingborg attack 1.043 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.194. Data: 30 GIF Sundsvall games / 30 Helsingborg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 42% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 30%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Helsingborg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Helsingborg lead the H2H ledger, but GIF Sundsvall carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Helsingborg 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 42% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.48 / Helsingborg 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.978 / def 0.972 | Helsingborg attack 1.043 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Helsingborg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 0 Helsingborg.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 42% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg?
Record (6 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 1 | Helsingborg 5W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.98) and Helsingborg's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (1.04x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.61
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.69
1.21
Helsingborg xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.21 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 15D 27L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Helsingborg sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (21W 17D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.33 for Helsingborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 11W 9D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Helsingborg have taken 1.27 points per game from 30 outings (10W 8D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.22 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Helsingborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 15D 27L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Helsingborg away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.40 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 5-2 on 21 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
3
Draws
6
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg?
From 10 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Helsingborg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 60%, Helsingborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (GIF Sundsvall) and 53% (Helsingborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helsingborg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Helsingborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 50% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 53% of Helsingborg's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Helsingborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Helsingborg 2-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.48 xG and Helsingborg 1.21 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Helsingborg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against Helsingborg attack 1.04 / defence 0.99, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 42% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 30%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 50%, Helsingborg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.15 PPG, Helsingborg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.