Gefle IF 2-2 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gefle IF at 47%, yet in-form Degerfors IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gefle IF vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gefle IF host Degerfors IF at Gavlevallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 15 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gefle IF — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Gavlevallen, Gefle IF have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gefle IF are significantly better at Gavlevallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 3W 7D 0L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Degerfors IF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Degerfors IF's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Degerfors IF's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Gefle IF's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Gefle IF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 57% versus Degerfors IF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 50% | Degerfors IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.56 xG and Degerfors IF 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 1.097 / defence 1.344 | Degerfors IF attack 0.884 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 0.918. Data: 32 Gefle IF games / 2 Degerfors IF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 47% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 26%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Degerfors IF 3.85. Gefle IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gefle IF at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Degerfors IF (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gefle IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gefle IF 50% | Degerfors IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Monday 15 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 47% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Gefle IF 1.56 / Degerfors IF 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 1.097 / def 1.344 | Degerfors IF attack 0.884 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.331 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Gefle IF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Degerfors IF xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Gefle IF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 15 April 2024 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Degerfors IF?
Gefle IF 2 - 2 Degerfors IF.
Where is Gefle IF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Gefle IF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 47% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gefle IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gefle IF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gefle IF and Degerfors IF in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gefle IF's attack rating (1.10) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Gefle IF's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gefle IF Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.67
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.65
1.09
Degerfors IF xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
5%
18.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.09 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Gefle IF have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 9W 10D 11L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Degerfors IF's form line: 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. Degerfors IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gefle IF on 1.23 PPG, Degerfors IF on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gefle IF have posted 1.67 PPG from 15 outings (7W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Gefle IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 4D 9L from 15 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gefle IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gefle IF are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.07 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.67 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gefle IF
1
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Degerfors IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 0, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2024, when Degerfors IF 1-0 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 53%, Degerfors IF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gefle IF) and 53% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Gefle IF's games and 67% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gefle IF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Gefle IF's recent games and 53% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gefle IF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gefle IF and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF and Degerfors IF finished level at 2-2 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.56 xG and Degerfors IF 1.09 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Degerfors IF outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 1.10 / defence 1.34 against Degerfors IF attack 0.88 / defence 1.06, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 47% | Draw 27% | Degerfors IF 26%, with Gefle IF to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 50%, Degerfors IF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gefle IF 1.23 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.