Gais 0-1 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 7 as Gais welcome Helsingborg to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 May 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.15 xG and Helsingborg 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 1.283 / defence 1.399 | Helsingborg attack 0.738 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 0.928 / away 0.968. Gais carry an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — their λ of 1.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 6 Gais games / 7 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 38% | Draw 32% | Helsingborg 31%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Helsingborg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 38% | Draw 32% | Helsingborg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Gais 1.15 / Helsingborg 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 1.283 / def 1.399 | Helsingborg attack 0.738 / def 0.962 | league avg home 0.928 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: Gais (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Helsingborg xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Helsingborg kick off?
Gais vs Helsingborg kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 23 May 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Helsingborg?
Gais 0 - 1 Helsingborg.
Where is Gais vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Helsingborg part of?
Gais vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 38% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gais and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Helsingborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gais and Helsingborg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gais's attack rating (1.28) and Helsingborg's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
38%
2.64
32%
3.16
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Gais xG
Total xG
2.15
1.00
Helsingborg xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gais and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Gais and 1.00 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
Helsingborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gais and Helsingborg runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when Gais won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gais's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Gais
0
Draws
2
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Helsingborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Gais have won 2, Helsingborg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Gais 4-1 Helsingborg.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Helsingborg defy the odds to beat Gais 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Gais 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.15 xG and Helsingborg 1.00 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gais fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 1.28 / defence 1.40 against Helsingborg attack 0.74 / defence 0.96, drawn from 6/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 38% | Draw 32% | Helsingborg 31%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Helsingborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.