Gais 1-1 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gais host Gefle IF at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Gais have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 2L across 6 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gefle IF — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gefle IF's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 4L across 6 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Gais carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Gais in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Gefle IF in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 38% versus Gefle IF 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 54% | Gefle IF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.60 xG and Gefle IF 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.970 / defence 0.889 | Gefle IF attack 0.737 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.075. Data: 13 Gais games / 13 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 59% | Draw 25% | Gefle IF 16%. Fair-value odds: Gais 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Gefle IF 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Gais (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gais 17% | Gefle IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 59% | Draw 25% | Gefle IF 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 40% | xG Gais 1.60 / Gefle IF 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.970 / def 0.889 | Gefle IF attack 0.737 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Gais (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Gefle IF xG
40%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Gefle IF kick off?
Gais vs Gefle IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Gefle IF?
Gais 1 - 1 Gefle IF.
Where is Gais vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Gefle IF part of?
Gais vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 59% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Gais and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Gefle IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gais and Gefle IF in?
Gais (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Gefle IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gais's attack at 0.97x the league average against Gefle IF's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gefle IF's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
59%
1.70
25%
4.03
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Gais xG
Total xG
2.30
0.70
Gefle IF xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
3%
30.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gais and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Gais and 0.70 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Gefle IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gais's recent record stands at 7W 3D 3L from 13 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gefle IF, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 6L across 13 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gais by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gefle IF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gais have managed 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gefle IF's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gefle IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gais are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.23 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
Gefle IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 games (1.85 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Gefle IF away?
Gais's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 2.00 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Gais or Gefle IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Gefle IF in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Gais
1
Draws
0
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Gefle IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Gais have won 1, Gefle IF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 23 September 2023, when Gefle IF 0-6 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Gefle IF?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Gais 17% BTTS, Gefle IF 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gais) and 33% (Gefle IF).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 33% of games; Gefle IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Gefle IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Gais's recent matches and 50% of Gefle IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gais's recent games and 33% of Gefle IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Gefle IF tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gais and Gefle IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais and Gefle IF finished level at 1-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.60 xG and Gefle IF 0.70 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.97 / defence 0.89 against Gefle IF attack 0.74 / defence 1.13, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 59% | Draw 25% | Gefle IF 16%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 54%, Gefle IF 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Gefle IF's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gais (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.