Degerfors IF 2-0 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Skövde AIK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus Skövde AIK in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 27 July 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Degerfors IF have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Skövde AIK's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Skövde AIK's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Degerfors IF. A 0.70 PPG lead over Skövde AIK (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Skövde AIK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Degerfors IF lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jun 2024, ended 2–0 with Degerfors IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Skövde AIK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 67% versus Skövde AIK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 60% | Skövde AIK 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 2.26 xG and Skövde AIK 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.317 / defence 1.114 | Skövde AIK attack 0.858 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.141. Degerfors IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Skövde AIK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Degerfors IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Degerfors IF games / 45 Skövde AIK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 64% | Draw 20% | Skövde AIK 17%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Skövde AIK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Degerfors IF (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 90% | Skövde AIK 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 64% | Draw 20% | Skövde AIK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Degerfors IF 2.26 / Skövde AIK 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.317 / def 1.114 | Skövde AIK attack 0.858 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Skövde AIK xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Skövde AIK kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Skövde AIK?
Degerfors IF 2 - 0 Skövde AIK.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Skövde AIK part of?
Degerfors IF vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 64% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Degerfors IF and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Skövde AIK?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 0 | Skövde AIK 0W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Skövde AIK in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Skövde AIK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Skövde AIK's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.26. Flip it around — Skövde AIK's attack (0.86x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
64%
1.57
20%
5.08
17%
5.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
3.35
1.09
Skövde AIK xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
5.94
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
10%
9.62
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
2%
57.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.09 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Skövde AIK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 14W 10D 21L from 45 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Skövde AIK, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 21L across 45 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.20 for Skövde AIK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 10W 3D 9L from 22 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Skövde AIK's away record stands at 3W 5D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Skövde AIK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.20 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Skövde AIK in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Skövde AIK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 14W 10D 21L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 15W 9D 21L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Skövde AIK away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.50 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
0
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Skövde AIK?
From 2 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 2, Skövde AIK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2024, when Degerfors IF 2-0 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Skövde AIK?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Degerfors IF, 59% for Skövde AIK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Degerfors IF and 68% for Skövde AIK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Skövde AIK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Degerfors IF's games and 59% of Skövde AIK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Degerfors IF's matches and 68% of Skövde AIK's.
Do Degerfors IF and Skövde AIK tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Skövde AIK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Skövde AIK 2-0 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 2.26 xG and Skövde AIK 1.09 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Skövde AIK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.32 / defence 1.11 against Skövde AIK attack 0.86 / defence 1.21, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 64% | Draw 20% | Skövde AIK 17%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 60%, Skövde AIK 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.16 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.