Degerfors IF 1-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Degerfors IF host IK brage at Stora Valla in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF at Stora Valla this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Degerfors IF at 1.90 PPG versus IK brage's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Degerfors IF, 0 for IK brage and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Degerfors IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
IK brage in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 67% versus IK brage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 58% | IK brage 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.41 xG and IK brage 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.239 / defence 1.071 | IK brage attack 0.861 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.171. IK brage's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 18 Degerfors IF games / 48 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 27% | IK brage 28%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | IK brage 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 80% | IK brage 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 27% | IK brage 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Degerfors IF 1.41 / IK brage 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.239 / def 1.071 | IK brage attack 0.861 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.08
IK brage xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs IK brage kick off?
Degerfors IF vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs IK brage?
Degerfors IF 1 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Degerfors IF vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs IK brage part of?
Degerfors IF vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 44% chance of winning, IK brage a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Degerfors IF and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IK brage?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 0 | IK brage 0W.
What form are Degerfors IF and IK brage in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. IK brage (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (1.24) and IK brage's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.65
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.49
1.08
IK brage xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
7%
14.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.08 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 15W 12D 21L from 48 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 18L across 48 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.19 PPG, IK brage on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 11W 4D 9L from 24 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 5W 5D 14L across 24 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IK brage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.31 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and IK brage in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 15W 12D 21L in their last 48 games (1.19 PPG), while IK brage have gone 21W 9D 18L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or IK brage away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.54 PPG; IK brage away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, IK brage in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
0
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IK brage?
From 2 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 1, IK brage have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2024, when Degerfors IF 1-1 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and IK brage?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
IK brage see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 71%, IK brage 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Degerfors IF) and 33% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: IK brage in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 38% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 33% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and IK brage tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, IK brage in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF and IK brage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF and IK brage finished level at 1-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.41 xG and IK brage 1.08 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.24 / defence 1.07 against IK brage attack 0.86 / defence 0.79, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 27% | IK brage 28%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 58%, IK brage 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.19 PPG, IK brage 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.