Dalkurd FF 0-1 Halmstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalkurd FF at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalkurd FF vs Halmstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Halmstad make the trip to Studenternas IP to face Dalkurd FF in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Monday 18 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Dalkurd FF (all games): 1W 1D 0L across 2 Superettan fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dalkurd FF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalkurd FF 1.66 xG and Halmstad 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalkurd FF attack 0.966 / defence 0.955 | Halmstad attack 0.948 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.417. Data: 2 Dalkurd FF games / 2 Halmstad games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 46% | Draw 24% | Halmstad 30%. Fair-value odds: Dalkurd FF 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Halmstad 3.33. Dalkurd FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dalkurd FF as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalkurd FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalkurd FF vs Halmstad | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalkurd FF 46% | Draw 24% | Halmstad 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Dalkurd FF 1.66 / Halmstad 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Dalkurd FF attack 0.966 / def 0.955 | Halmstad attack 0.948 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Dalkurd FF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Dalkurd FF xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Halmstad xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalkurd FF vs Halmstad kick off?
Dalkurd FF vs Halmstad kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Dalkurd FF vs Halmstad?
Dalkurd FF 0 - 1 Halmstad.
Where is Dalkurd FF vs Halmstad being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Dalkurd FF vs Halmstad part of?
Dalkurd FF vs Halmstad is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Dalkurd FF vs Halmstad?
Our statistical model gives Dalkurd FF a 46% chance of winning, Halmstad a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dalkurd FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalkurd FF vs Halmstad?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dalkurd FF and Halmstad will score (BTTS).
Will Dalkurd FF vs Halmstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Halmstad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalkurd FF and Halmstad in?
Dalkurd FF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D. Dalkurd FF home split: 3.00 PPG from 1 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dalkurd FF's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Halmstad's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Halmstad's attack (0.95x) against Dalkurd FF's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalkurd FF Win
46%
2.16
24%
4.15
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Dalkurd FF xG
Total xG
2.94
1.28
Halmstad xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
6%
17.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalkurd FF vs Halmstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Dalkurd FF and Halmstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Dalkurd FF and 1.28 for Halmstad, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalkurd FF vs Halmstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalkurd FF
Pre-Season
Halmstad
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dalkurd FF
0
Draws
2
Halmstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalkurd FF and Halmstad?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalkurd FF have won 0, Halmstad have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalkurd FF and Halmstad last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2022, when Halmstad 3-1 Dalkurd FF.
Who has won more matches between Dalkurd FF and Halmstad?
Halmstad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalkurd FF home games / Halmstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Halmstad defy the odds to beat Dalkurd FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Halmstad beat Dalkurd FF 0-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalkurd FF 1.66 xG and Halmstad 1.28 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dalkurd FF fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalkurd FF attack 0.97 / defence 0.95 against Halmstad attack 0.95 / defence 1.18, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dalkurd FF 46% | Draw 24% | Halmstad 30%, with Dalkurd FF to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Halmstad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.