Akropolis 0-3 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Norrby IF at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Akropolis vs Norrby IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Norrby IF make the trip to Studenternas IP to face Akropolis in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 July 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Akropolis have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Akropolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Studenternas IP, Akropolis have gone 2W 2D 1L this season (5 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Akropolis are significantly better at Studenternas IP than their overall form suggests.
Norrby IF (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF away from home this season: 3W 1D 2L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Norrby IF are 1.10 PPG clear of Akropolis in recent Superettan fixtures (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Akropolis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Norrby IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akropolis 54% versus Norrby IF 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Akropolis 27% | Norrby IF 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akropolis 0.93 xG and Norrby IF 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akropolis attack 0.997 / defence 1.119 | Norrby IF attack 0.858 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 0.891 / away 0.989. Data: 11 Akropolis games / 11 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akropolis 33% | Draw 32% | Norrby IF 35%. Fair-value odds: Akropolis 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Norrby IF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Norrby IF as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Norrby IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: Akropolis 60% | Norrby IF 33%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akropolis vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akropolis 33% | Draw 32% | Norrby IF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Akropolis 0.93 / Norrby IF 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Akropolis attack 0.997 / def 1.119 | Norrby IF attack 0.858 / def 1.042 | league avg home 0.891 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Akropolis xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Norrby IF xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akropolis vs Norrby IF kick off?
Akropolis vs Norrby IF kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Akropolis vs Norrby IF?
Akropolis 0 - 3 Norrby IF.
Where is Akropolis vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Akropolis vs Norrby IF part of?
Akropolis vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Akropolis vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Akropolis a 33% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akropolis vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Akropolis and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Akropolis vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and Norrby IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Akropolis and Norrby IF in?
Akropolis (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Norrby IF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Akropolis's attack at 1.00x the league average against Norrby IF's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Norrby IF's attack (0.86x) against Akropolis's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
33%
3.00
32%
3.12
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Akropolis xG
Total xG
1.88
0.95
Norrby IF xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 14.6 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akropolis vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Akropolis and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Akropolis and 0.95 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Akropolis vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Akropolis's recent record stands at 2W 4D 5L from 11 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Akropolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 3L across 11 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Norrby IF by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akropolis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Akropolis have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Akropolis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Norrby IF's away record stands at 3W 1D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Akropolis are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.18 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Norrby IF in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akropolis
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akropolis and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Akropolis have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akropolis at home or Norrby IF away?
Norrby IF's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akropolis at home: 1.60 PPG; Norrby IF away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Akropolis or Norrby IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akropolis have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Norrby IF in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Akropolis
0
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and Norrby IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Akropolis have won 1, Norrby IF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Akropolis and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2021, when Norrby IF 0-1 Akropolis.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Akropolis see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akropolis 60%, Norrby IF 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Akropolis and 20% for Norrby IF.
On the defensive side: Norrby IF in 60%; Norrby IF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akropolis home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akropolis play Norrby IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Akropolis's recent matches and 20% of Norrby IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akropolis vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Akropolis's recent games and 20% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akropolis and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Akropolis have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Norrby IF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Akropolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat Akropolis 0-3 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akropolis 0.93 xG and Norrby IF 0.95 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Akropolis fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Norrby IF outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akropolis attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Norrby IF attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akropolis 33% | Draw 32% | Norrby IF 35%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akropolis 27%, Norrby IF 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akropolis's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Norrby IF's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Akropolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Norrby IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.