AFC Eskilstuna 3-0 Akropolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Akropolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AFC Eskilstuna and Akropolis meet at Tunavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 April 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.17 xG and Akropolis 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.979 / defence 1.150 | Akropolis attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 0.891. Data: 1 AFC Eskilstuna games / 1 Akropolis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 43% | Draw 30% | Akropolis 27%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Akropolis 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AFC Eskilstuna as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Akropolis | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 43% | Draw 30% | Akropolis 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.17 / Akropolis 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.979 / def 1.150 | Akropolis attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.036 / away 0.891 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Akropolis xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Akropolis kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Akropolis kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 17 April 2021 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Akropolis?
AFC Eskilstuna 3 - 0 Akropolis.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Akropolis being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Akropolis part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Akropolis is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Akropolis?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 43% chance of winning, Akropolis a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Akropolis?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Akropolis will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Akropolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Akropolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Akropolis in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AFC Eskilstuna's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Akropolis's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Akropolis's attack (0.85x) against AFC Eskilstuna's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
43%
2.35
30%
3.33
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.04
0.87
Akropolis xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Akropolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Akropolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 0.87 for Akropolis, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Akropolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Pre-Season
Akropolis
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
AFC Eskilstuna
0
Draws
1
Akropolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Akropolis?
From 2 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, Akropolis have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Akropolis last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2021, when Akropolis 1-0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Akropolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant AFC Eskilstuna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Akropolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Akropolis 3-0 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.17 xG and Akropolis 0.87 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Akropolis landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Akropolis attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 43% | Draw 30% | Akropolis 27%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.