Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Mjallby AIF travel to Hitachi Energy Arena to take on Vasteras SK FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK at Hitachi Energy Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Vasteras SK FK are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, Mjallby AIF 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Mjallby AIF trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 48% versus Mjallby AIF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 65% | Mjallby AIF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.47 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.786 / defence 0.895 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.075 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.284. Vasteras SK FK's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Vasteras SK FK games / 48 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 42% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 31%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Mjallby AIF 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Vasteras SK FK 40% | Mjallby AIF 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 42% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.47 / Mjallby AIF 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.786 / def 0.895 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.075 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Mjallby AIF xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 42% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF?
Record (3 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 1W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
42%
2.41
28%
3.63
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.70
1.24
Mjallby AIF xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
7%
14.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.24 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasteras SK FK's recent record stands at 27W 9D 12L from 48 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 9L across 48 games — 1.98 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.88 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vasteras SK FK have managed 14W 7D 3L from 24 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 14W 6D 4L across 24 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.69 scored and 0.98 conceded. Vasteras SK FK's scoring rate against Mjallby AIF's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Mjallby AIF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 27W 9D 12L in their last 48 games (1.88 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 28W 11D 9L in their last 48 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 2.04 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
1
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF?
From 3 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-0 Vasteras SK FK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 42%, Mjallby AIF 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Vasteras SK FK) and 62% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 58% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 62% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.