Vasteras SK FK 4-5 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 45%, yet in-form IFK Goteborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasteras SK FK host IFK Goteborg at Hitachi Energy Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Hitachi Energy Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at Hitachi Energy Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. IFK Goteborg are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 0 for IFK Goteborg and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
IFK Goteborg trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 53% versus IFK Goteborg 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 47% | IFK Goteborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.83 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.893 / defence 1.194 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.904 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.357. IFK Goteborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Vasteras SK FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Vasteras SK FK games / 39 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 45% | Draw 25% | IFK Goteborg 30%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | IFK Goteborg 3.33. Vasteras SK FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IFK Goteborg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 90% | IFK Goteborg 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 45% | Draw 25% | IFK Goteborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.83 / IFK Goteborg 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.893 / def 1.194 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.904 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.46
IFK Goteborg xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 May 2026 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Goteborg?
Vasteras SK FK 4 - 5 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 45% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IFK Goteborg?
Record (2 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 0W | Draws 2 | IFK Goteborg 0W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and IFK Goteborg in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (0.89) and IFK Goteborg's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
45%
2.20
25%
4.07
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
3.29
1.46
IFK Goteborg xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
10%
9.52
5%
20.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.46 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Vasteras SK FK have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 6W 5D 19L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 16W 3D 11L from 30 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, IFK Goteborg are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vasteras SK FK.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vasteras SK FK have posted 1.00 PPG from 15 outings (4W 3D 8L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 9W 2D 4L from 15 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Goteborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.37 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: IFK Goteborg in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 5D 19L in their last 30 games (0.77 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 16W 3D 11L in their last 30 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or IFK Goteborg away?
IFK Goteborg's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.00 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasteras SK FK and IFK Goteborg runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 31 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Vasteras SK FK
2
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IFK Goteborg?
From 3 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 4-5 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 67%, IFK Goteborg 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vasteras SK FK) and 53% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg in 47%; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 27% of games; IFK Goteborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 33% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 53% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Goteborg defy the odds to beat Vasteras SK FK 4-5.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Vasteras SK FK 4-5 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.83 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.46 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 4-5 for 9 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Goteborg outscored their 1.46 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.90 / defence 1.28, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 45% | Draw 25% | IFK Goteborg 30%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual IFK Goteborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 47%, IFK Goteborg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Goteborg arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.