Vasteras SK FK 1-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Hammarby FF encounter.

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Full Analysis

Hitachi Energy Arena plays host to Vasteras SK FK versus Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Vasteras SK FK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Hitachi Energy Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Hammarby FF have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Hammarby FF arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 1 for Hammarby FF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Hammarby FF winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Vasteras SK FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 48% versus Hammarby FF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 51% | Hammarby FF 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 0.73 xG and Hammarby FF 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.838 / defence 1.198 | Hammarby FF attack 1.113 / defence 0.629. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.233. Hammarby FF's defence strength of 0.629 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 29 Vasteras SK FK games / 59 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 16% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 59%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | Hammarby FF 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Vasteras SK FK 90% | Hammarby FF 10%.

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