Vasteras SK FK 1-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs AIK Stockholm encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Vasteras SK FK and AIK Stockholm meet at Hitachi Energy Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time.

Current Form

Vasteras SK FK's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Vasteras SK FK have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

AIK Stockholm (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

AIK Stockholm's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

AIK Stockholm arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, AIK Stockholm edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Aug 2024, ended Vasteras SK FK 1–2 AIK Stockholm — a AIK Stockholm win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Vasteras SK FK half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

AIK Stockholm half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 53% versus AIK Stockholm 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 47% | AIK Stockholm 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.51 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.908 / defence 1.298 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.999 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.311. Vasteras SK FK's defence rating of 1.298 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AIK Stockholm's projected output up. Data: built from Vasteras SK FK's last 7 games and AIK Stockholm's last 37.

Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 34% | Draw 24% | AIK Stockholm 42%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.92 | Draw 4.24 | AIK Stockholm 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.51 / 1.70) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

Form (Vasteras SK FK's last 10 home games and AIK Stockholm's last 10 away games) suggests only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 62% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.

The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vasteras SK FK 90% (last 10 home games) | AIK Stockholm 40% (last 10 away games).

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