Utsikten 0-7 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utsikten at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Relegation Round sees IF Brommapojkarna travel to Bravida Arena to take on Utsikten. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 November 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Utsikten have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Utsikten haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Utsikten at Bravida Arena this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
IF Brommapojkarna's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Utsikten 1.10 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Utsikten, 0 for IF Brommapojkarna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Utsikten winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Utsikten trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 53% versus IF Brommapojkarna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 50% | IF Brommapojkarna 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.61 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.056 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.263. IF Brommapojkarna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Utsikten's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Utsikten games / 30 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 40% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 36%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utsikten at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Utsikten 50% | IF Brommapojkarna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Relegation Round | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 40% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Utsikten 1.61 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.056 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.53
IF Brommapojkarna xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Utsikten 0 - 7 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Relegation Round fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 40% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (2 meetings): Utsikten 2W | Draws 0 | IF Brommapojkarna 0W.
What form are Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Utsikten (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Utsikten's attack at 0.85x the league average against IF Brommapojkarna's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Utsikten's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
40%
2.51
24%
4.23
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Utsikten xG
Total xG
3.14
1.53
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.62
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.53 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Utsikten come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 7D 13L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L. Utsikten haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, IF Brommapojkarna sit at 1.10 PPG from 30 outings (10W 3D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utsikten on 1.23 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Utsikten's home form reads 4W 6D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Brommapojkarna have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (5W 1D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Utsikten are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.33 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Pre-Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 10W 3D 17L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Utsikten's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.20 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2023, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utsikten's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Utsikten
1
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 4 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 2, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2023, when IF Brommapojkarna 0-0 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 60%, IF Brommapojkarna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Utsikten) and 67% (IF Brommapojkarna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utsikten have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Utsikten's games and 60% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utsikten vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Utsikten's matches and 67% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Utsikten and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Brommapojkarna run riot with a 0-7 hammering of Utsikten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Utsikten 0-7 at Bravida Arena, Relegation Round, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.61 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.53 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-7 for 7 actual goals. Utsikten fell 1.6 short of their projected output. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 1.53 projection by 5.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.06 / defence 1.25, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 40% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 36%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual IF Brommapojkarna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 50%, IF Brommapojkarna 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.23 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.