Sirius 0-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 10 as Sirius welcome Vasteras SK FK to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Monday 20 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Studenternas IP, Sirius have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sirius 2.20 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Sirius in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 53% and Vasteras SK FK 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 63% | Vasteras SK FK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.48 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.941 / defence 1.065 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.574 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.399. Data: 39 Sirius games / 9 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 52% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 22%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Vasteras SK FK 4.55. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Sirius 50% | Vasteras SK FK 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 52% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Sirius 1.48 / Vasteras SK FK 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.941 / def 1.065 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.574 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Sirius (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Vasteras SK FK xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 20 May 2024 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK?
Sirius 0 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 52% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sirius and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and Vasteras SK FK in?
Sirius (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sirius's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.78
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.33
0.85
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
5%
20.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sirius and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sirius and 0.85 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 12W 6D 12L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 10W 10D 10L from 30 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.40 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (7W 1D 7L).
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sirius are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.67 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 10W 10D 10L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Sirius's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.47 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Sirius or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Sirius won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Sirius
1
Draws
0
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Vasteras SK FK?
From 3 meetings on record, Sirius have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Sirius 4-1 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Vasteras SK FK?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 53%, Vasteras SK FK 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sirius) and 47% (Vasteras SK FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Vasteras SK FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Sirius's games and 60% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sirius's matches and 47% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Sirius and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sirius's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 10, as Sirius and Vasteras SK FK drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.48 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.85 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sirius fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.57 / defence 1.01, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 52% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 22%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 63%, Vasteras SK FK 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.40 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.