Sirius 2-3 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sirius at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 22 as Sirius welcome IFK Varnamo to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's home record at Studenternas IP: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Varnamo have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Sirius) versus 1.00 (IFK Varnamo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sirius, 0 for IFK Varnamo and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
IFK Varnamo trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 49% versus IFK Varnamo 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 53% | IFK Varnamo 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.57 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.757 / defence 0.894 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.921 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.184. Sirius's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Sirius games / 21 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 51% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 24%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | IFK Varnamo 4.17. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 30% | IFK Varnamo 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 51% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Sirius 1.57 / IFK Varnamo 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.757 / def 0.894 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.921 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Sirius (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
0.97
IFK Varnamo xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Sirius vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?
Sirius 2 - 3 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Sirius vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Sirius vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 51% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sirius and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Varnamo?
Record (1 meetings): Sirius 0W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 0W.
What form are Sirius and IFK Varnamo in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sirius's attack rating (0.76) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
51%
1.95
25%
3.95
24%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.54
0.97
IFK Varnamo xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.26
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
5%
20.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sirius and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sirius and 0.97 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sirius's recent record stands at 17W 11D 23L from 51 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 16L across 51 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.22 PPG, IFK Varnamo on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sirius have managed 12W 2D 11L from 25 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 9W 5D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.31 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 17W 11D 23L in their last 51 games (1.22 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 23W 12D 16L in their last 51 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Sirius's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.52 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Sirius or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and IFK Varnamo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Sirius's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Sirius
1
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Varnamo?
From 8 meetings on record, Sirius have won 5, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Sirius 3-1 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IFK Varnamo?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 40%, IFK Varnamo 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sirius) and 60% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sirius have failed to score in 28% of games; IFK Varnamo in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sirius's recent matches and 52% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sirius's recent games and 60% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Varnamo defy the odds to beat Sirius 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Sirius 2-3 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.57 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.97 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. IFK Varnamo outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.76 / defence 0.89 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.92 / defence 1.35, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 51% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 24%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a IFK Varnamo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 53%, IFK Varnamo 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.22 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.