Sirius 5-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sirius (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sirius face IFK Norrkoping.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IFK Norrkoping make the trip to Studenternas IP to face Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 June 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sirius have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sirius's home record at Studenternas IP: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IFK Norrkoping (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
IFK Norrkoping's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Sirius's favour (2.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Sirius 3W, IFK Norrkoping 1W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Sirius winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 47% versus IFK Norrkoping 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 53% | IFK Norrkoping 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.61 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.811 / defence 1.014 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.909 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.319. IFK Norrkoping bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Sirius games / 41 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 47% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 29%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | IFK Norrkoping 3.45. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | IFK Norrkoping 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jun 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 47% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Sirius 1.61 / IFK Norrkoping 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.811 / def 1.014 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.909 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Sirius (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.22
IFK Norrkoping xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Sirius vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IFK Norrkoping?
Sirius 5 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Sirius vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Sirius vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 47% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sirius and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (6 meetings): Sirius 3W | Draws 2 | IFK Norrkoping 1W.
What form are Sirius and IFK Norrkoping in?
Sirius (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sirius's attack at 0.81x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.91x) against Sirius's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
47%
2.15
25%
4.06
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.82
1.22
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
6%
17.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sirius and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Sirius and 1.22 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sirius's recent record stands at 21W 14D 25L from 60 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
IFK Norrkoping, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 25L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Sirius against 1.25 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sirius have managed 13W 3D 14L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Norrkoping's away record stands at 8W 9D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sirius are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.42 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 20W 15D 25L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Sirius's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.40 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Sirius or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 5-1 on 1 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sirius
2
Draws
2
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 6, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 1-2 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IFK Norrkoping?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 47%, IFK Norrkoping 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sirius) and 60% (IFK Norrkoping). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Sirius's games and 70% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Sirius's matches and 60% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Sirius and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sirius run riot with a 5-1 hammering of IFK Norrkoping.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat IFK Norrkoping 5-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.61 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.22 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.81 / defence 1.01 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.91 / defence 1.23, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 47% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 29%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 53%, IFK Norrkoping 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.28 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.