Sirius 2-2 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sirius (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sirius face IF Brommapojkarna.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 16 as Sirius welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Monday 10 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Studenternas IP, Sirius have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Brommapojkarna have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sirius carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Sirius: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for IF Brommapojkarna, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2026, ended 2–1 with Sirius winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sirius and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 74% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 73% and IF Brommapojkarna 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 73% | IF Brommapojkarna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 2.41 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.395 / defence 1.076 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.010 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.360. Sirius carry an above-average attack strength of 1.395 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Sirius games / 45 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 57% | Draw 22% | IF Brommapojkarna 21%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | IF Brommapojkarna 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Sirius (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.41 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.89 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 70% | IF Brommapojkarna 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 10 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 57% | Draw 22% | IF Brommapojkarna 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 72% | xG Sirius 2.41 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.395 / def 1.076 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.010 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Sirius (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.48
IF Brommapojkarna xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 10 August 2026 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Sirius 2 - 2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 57% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (7 meetings): Sirius 5W | Draws 1 | IF Brommapojkarna 1W.
What form are Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Sirius (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sirius's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.41. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
57%
1.77
22%
4.50
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.89
1.48
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.55
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
9%
11.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
2%
52.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Sirius and 1.48 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 24W 8D 13L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Brommapojkarna's form line: 13W 9D 23L from 45 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sirius are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IF Brommapojkarna.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.91 PPG from 22 outings (13W 3D 6L).
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 8W 6D 8L from 22 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.33 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 24W 8D 13L in their last 45 games (1.78 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 13W 9D 23L in their last 45 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Sirius's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.91 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Sirius
2
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 8 meetings on record, Sirius have won 5, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Sirius 2-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
IF Brommapojkarna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 64%, IF Brommapojkarna 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Sirius and 59% for IF Brommapojkarna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sirius's games and 59% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Sirius's matches and 59% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 16, as Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 2.41 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.48 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.40 / defence 1.08 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 57% | Draw 22% | IF Brommapojkarna 21%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 73%, IF Brommapojkarna 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sirius arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.