Sirius 0-3 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sirius at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 3 as Sirius welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Studenternas IP, Sirius have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Brommapojkarna have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IF Brommapojkarna away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sirius) versus 0.90 (IF Brommapojkarna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Sirius: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for IF Brommapojkarna, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 3–2 with Sirius winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sirius and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 55% versus IF Brommapojkarna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 62% | IF Brommapojkarna 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.35 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.888 / defence 1.028 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.856 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.248. Data: 32 Sirius games / 32 IF Brommapojkarna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sirius 43% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 30%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | IF Brommapojkarna 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sirius 70% | IF Brommapojkarna 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 43% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Sirius 1.35 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.888 / def 1.028 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.856 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Sirius (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.10
IF Brommapojkarna xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Sirius 0 - 3 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 43% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (4 meetings): Sirius 3W | Draws 1 | IF Brommapojkarna 0W.
What form are Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Sirius (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sirius's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
43%
2.35
27%
3.70
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.45
1.10
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sirius and 1.10 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 24W 11D 25L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
IF Brommapojkarna's form line: 19W 14D 27L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.38 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (13W 4D 13L).
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 10W 6D 14L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.52 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 24W 11D 25L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Sirius's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.43 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Sirius
2
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 8 meetings on record, Sirius have won 5, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Sirius 2-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 53%, IF Brommapojkarna 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sirius and 63% for IF Brommapojkarna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Sirius's games and 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sirius's matches and 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Sirius and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Brommapojkarna run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Sirius 0-3 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.35 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.10 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sirius fell 1.4 short of their projected output. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.89 / defence 1.03 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 43% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 30%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual IF Brommapojkarna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 62%, IF Brommapojkarna 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.38 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.