Sirius 3-2 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sirius at 75% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sirius have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Sirius are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2023, ended 3–0 with Sirius winning.
The historical record gives Sirius a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 44% versus Degerfors IF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 52% | Degerfors IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 2.88 xG and Degerfors IF 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.394 / defence 1.093 | Degerfors IF attack 0.779 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.228. Sirius carry an above-average attack strength of 1.394 — their λ of 2.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.423 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Sirius games / 54 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 75% | Draw 14% | Degerfors IF 11%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.33 | Draw 7.14 | Degerfors IF 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Sirius (75%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.88 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 75% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sirius 50% | Degerfors IF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 75% | Draw 14% | Degerfors IF 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 61% | xG Sirius 2.88 / Degerfors IF 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.394 / def 1.093 | Degerfors IF attack 0.779 / def 1.423 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Sirius (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.88
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Degerfors IF xG
61%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Sirius vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Sirius 3 - 2 Degerfors IF.
Where is Sirius vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Degerfors IF part of?
Sirius vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 75% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 11% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sirius and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Degerfors IF?
Record (5 meetings): Sirius 4W | Draws 1 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Sirius and Degerfors IF in?
Sirius (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sirius's attack rating (1.39) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.78x) against Sirius's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.6%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
75%
1.33
14%
7.04
11%
9.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.88
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.92
1.04
Degerfors IF xG
1.33
75%
Home win
7.04
14%
Draw
9.24
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
6%
17.81
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
1%
164.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Sirius and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.88 expected goals for Sirius and 1.04 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 54 games, going 16W 13D 25L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.00 PPG from 54 outings (14W 12D 28L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Sirius against 1.00 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 9W 3D 14L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.62 points per game from 26 outings (4W 4D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.02 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 16W 13D 25L in their last 54 games (1.13 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 14W 12D 28L in their last 54 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Degerfors IF away?
Sirius's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.15 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Sirius or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 0-3 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Sirius
2
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Sirius have won 6, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Degerfors IF?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 42%, Degerfors IF 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sirius) and 58% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sirius have failed to score in 27% of games; Degerfors IF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sirius's recent matches and 58% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sirius's recent games and 58% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sirius edge out Degerfors IF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Degerfors IF 3-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 2.88 xG and Degerfors IF 1.04 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Degerfors IF outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.39 / defence 1.09 against Degerfors IF attack 0.78 / defence 1.42, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 75% | Draw 14% | Degerfors IF 11%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 52%, Degerfors IF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.13 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.