Orgryte IS 2-2 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 41%, yet in-form Orgryte IS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 29 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Orgryte IS's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Orgryte IS have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 7W 2D 1L at Gamla Ullevi — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Elfsborg (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Orgryte IS's favour (1.90 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 66% versus IF Elfsborg 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 59% | IF Elfsborg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.29 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.823 / defence 1.262 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.890 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.338. Data: 9 Orgryte IS games / 40 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 32% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 41%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | IF Elfsborg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Orgryte IS (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 80% | IF Elfsborg 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Friday 29 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 32% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Orgryte IS 1.29 / IF Elfsborg 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.823 / def 1.262 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.890 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.50
IF Elfsborg xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 29 May 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg?
Orgryte IS 2 - 2 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 32% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Orgryte IS and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orgryte IS and IF Elfsborg in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (0.82) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.89x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 9/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
32%
3.17
27%
3.65
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.79
1.50
IF Elfsborg xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
7%
14.27
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.50 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orgryte IS come into this having played 32 games, going 13W 9D 10L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Orgryte IS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.38 PPG from 32 outings (13W 5D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.38 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Orgryte IS's home form reads 8W 3D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.06 points per game from 16 outings (5W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.44 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Early Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 13W 9D 10L in their last 32 games (1.50 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 13W 5D 14L in their last 32 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.69 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 29 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
0
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IF Elfsborg?
From 1 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 0, IF Elfsborg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Orgryte IS 2-2 IF Elfsborg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IF Elfsborg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 75%, IF Elfsborg 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Orgryte IS and 50% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 31% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Orgryte IS's matches and 50% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Orgryte IS and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and IF Elfsborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS and IF Elfsborg finished level at 2-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.29 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.50 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.82 / defence 1.26 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 9/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 32% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 41%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 59%, IF Elfsborg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.50 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.