Orebro SK 3-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Orebro SK take on Mjallby AIF.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 9 as Orebro SK welcome Mjallby AIF to Behrn Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 20 July 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Orebro SK have gone 2W 3D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.12 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK at Behrn Arena this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 home games — 1.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Behrn Arena.
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 4W 1D 3L from 8 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.62 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mjallby AIF — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.62 vs 1.12). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Orebro SK's 0% and Mjallby AIF's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Data
Orebro SK trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Mjallby AIF trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 38% versus Mjallby AIF 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Orebro SK 25% | Mjallby AIF 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 0.68 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.588 / defence 0.885 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.703 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.113. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.588 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Orebro SK games / 8 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 30% | Draw 39% | Mjallby AIF 31%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 3.33 | Draw 2.56 | Mjallby AIF 3.23. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 16% | BTTS probability 25% | Total xG 1.37. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 84% probability — total xG of 1.37 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 75% — Orebro SK's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 25%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 16% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 25% on No. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 0% | Mjallby AIF 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 30% | Draw 39% | Mjallby AIF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 16% | BTTS 25% | xG Orebro SK 0.68 / Mjallby AIF 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.588 / def 0.885 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.703 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Mjallby AIF xG
25%
BTTS
40%
Over 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 20 July 2020 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF?
Orebro SK 3 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 30% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 31% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 25% probability that both Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 16%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Orebro SK's attack rating (0.59) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 27.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.1%), 1-0 (15.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 59% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.33
39%
2.58
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
25.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
1.37
0.69
Mjallby AIF xG
3.33
30%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
40%
Over 1.5
2.50
60%
Under 1.5
1.67
16%
Over 2.5
6.25
84%
Under 2.5
1.19
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
25%
BTTS Yes
4.07
75%
BTTS No
1.33
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.5 | 17.6 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 11.9 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 27.0%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.69 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 1.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 2W 3D 3L from 8 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 3L across 8 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mjallby AIF by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Orebro SK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.12 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.25 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
2
Draws
1
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2021, when Mjallby AIF 0-0 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Mjallby AIF tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Orebro SK 0% BTTS, Mjallby AIF 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Orebro SK and 25% for Mjallby AIF.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 50%; Orebro SK have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 25% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Orebro SK's recent games and 25% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Mjallby AIF 3-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.68 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.69 xG, a combined 1.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.59 / defence 0.89 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.70 / defence 1.07, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 30% | Draw 39% | Mjallby AIF 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Orebro SK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 40% and landed. Over 3.5 was 5% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 25% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 25%, Mjallby AIF 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Orebro SK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.