Orebro SK 0-0 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orebro SK and BK Hacken meet at Behrn Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 2 July 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Orebro SK (all games): 1W 2D 1L across 4 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.25 PPG. Last five: L W D D. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Orebro SK have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
BK Hacken's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. BK Hacken have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.25 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Orebro SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BK Hacken goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orebro SK 50% and BK Hacken 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Orebro SK 25% | BK Hacken 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 0.88 xG and BK Hacken 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.680 / defence 1.050 | BK Hacken attack 0.841 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.424. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.680 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. BK Hacken bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Orebro SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Orebro SK games / 4 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 23% | Draw 35% | BK Hacken 42%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 4.35 | Draw 2.86 | BK Hacken 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BK Hacken if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Orebro SK 50% | BK Hacken 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 23% | Draw 35% | BK Hacken 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Orebro SK 0.88 / BK Hacken 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.680 / def 1.050 | BK Hacken attack 0.841 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.26
BK Hacken xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs BK Hacken kick off?
Orebro SK vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 2 July 2020 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs BK Hacken?
Orebro SK 0 - 0 BK Hacken.
Where is Orebro SK vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs BK Hacken part of?
Orebro SK vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 23% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 42% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Orebro SK and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orebro SK and BK Hacken in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D. BK Hacken (all comps): 1W-3D-0L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Orebro SK's attack rating (0.68) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — BK Hacken's attack (0.84x) against Orebro SK's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
23%
4.38
35%
2.86
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.13
1.26
BK Hacken xG
4.38
23%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
6%
15.41
18%
5.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 14.9 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.26 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 1W 2D 1L record — L-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Orebro SK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
BK Hacken's form line: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for BK Hacken, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.50 for BK Hacken. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Orebro SK are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Early Season
BK Hacken
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 1W 3D 0L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BK Hacken won 3-0 on 29 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against BK Hacken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
1
Draws
2
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and BK Hacken?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, BK Hacken have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2021, when Orebro SK 1-2 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 50%, BK Hacken 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Orebro SK and 25% for BK Hacken.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Orebro SK's games and 75% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Orebro SK's recent games and 25% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Orebro SK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK and BK Hacken finished level at 0-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.88 xG and BK Hacken 1.26 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. BK Hacken landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.68 / defence 1.05 against BK Hacken attack 0.84 / defence 1.28, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 23% | Draw 35% | BK Hacken 42%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 25%, BK Hacken 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
BK Hacken's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.25 PPG, BK Hacken 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orebro SK conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. BK Hacken managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.