Mjallby AIF 2-3 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Varbergs BoIS FC at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 3W 4D 2L at Strandvallen — 1.44 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Varbergs BoIS FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 1W 3D 4L from 8 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mjallby AIF at 1.10 PPG versus Varbergs BoIS FC's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 1 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2020, ended 0–1 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Mjallby AIF trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjallby AIF 67% and Varbergs BoIS FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 56% | Varbergs BoIS FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.58 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.057 / defence 1.276 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.920 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.439. Varbergs BoIS FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Mjallby AIF games / 18 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 35% | Draw 26% | Varbergs BoIS FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 78% | Varbergs BoIS FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 35% | Draw 26% | Varbergs BoIS FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.58 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.057 / def 1.276 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.920 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 13 September 2020 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 35% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (1 meetings): Mjallby AIF 0W | Draws 0 | Varbergs BoIS FC 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 1.06x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
35%
2.87
26%
3.91
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
3.27
1.69
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
6%
15.50
8%
12.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.69 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 6D 6L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.33 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 3W 4D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Varbergs BoIS FC have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Varbergs BoIS FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Varbergs BoIS FC in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 games (1.33 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.62 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Mjallby AIF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2023, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mjallby AIF at 88%, Varbergs BoIS FC at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Mjallby AIF and 62% for Varbergs BoIS FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Mjallby AIF's games and 50% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 62% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Varbergs BoIS FC edge out Mjallby AIF 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Mjallby AIF 2-3 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.58 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.69 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.06 / defence 1.28 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.30, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 35% | Draw 26% | Varbergs BoIS FC 40%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 56%, Varbergs BoIS FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.33 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Varbergs BoIS FC win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.