Mjallby AIF 1-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 26 June 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
IFK Norrkoping's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Mjallby AIF's favour (2.00 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjallby AIF lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 47% versus IFK Norrkoping 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 47% | IFK Norrkoping 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.44 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.986 / defence 0.850 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.910 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.072. Data: 40 Mjallby AIF games / 40 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 52% | Draw 27% | IFK Norrkoping 22%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | IFK Norrkoping 4.55. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 20% | IFK Norrkoping 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 52% | Draw 27% | IFK Norrkoping 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.44 / IFK Norrkoping 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.986 / def 0.850 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.910 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.83
IFK Norrkoping xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 52% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (2 meetings): Mjallby AIF 0W | Draws 1 | IFK Norrkoping 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against IFK Norrkoping's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.91x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.72
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.27
0.83
IFK Norrkoping xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
5%
19.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.83 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 22W 19D 19L from 60 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
IFK Norrkoping, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 22L across 60 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.50 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 13W 9D 8L from 30 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Norrkoping's away record stands at 12W 3D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.75 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 70%.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 22W 19D 19L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 26W 12D 22L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.60 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
4
Draws
2
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Mjallby AIF 2-1 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 43%, IFK Norrkoping 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Mjallby AIF) and 67% (IFK Norrkoping). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Mjallby AIF's games and 67% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 67% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 11, as Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.44 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.83 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.99 / defence 0.85 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.91 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 52% | Draw 27% | IFK Norrkoping 22%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 47%, IFK Norrkoping 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.42 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.