Mjallby AIF 4-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 26 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Mjallby AIF are significantly better at Strandvallen than their overall form suggests.
IF Elfsborg have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
IF Elfsborg arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 50% versus IF Elfsborg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 44% | IF Elfsborg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 0.64 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.547 / defence 0.792 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.234 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.062. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.547 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. IF Elfsborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 1.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Mjallby AIF's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Mjallby AIF games / 50 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 20% | Draw 37% | IF Elfsborg 43%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 5.00 | Draw 2.70 | IF Elfsborg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Mjallby AIF's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 20% | IF Elfsborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 20% | Draw 37% | IF Elfsborg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Mjallby AIF 0.64 / IF Elfsborg 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.547 / def 0.792 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.234 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.04
IF Elfsborg xG
32%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Mjallby AIF 4 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 20% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 43% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.55x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.64. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.23x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.9%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
20%
4.93
37%
2.71
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
1.67
1.04
IF Elfsborg xG
4.93
20%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.11
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
53%
1.89
Win to Nil
7%
13.90
23%
4.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.8 | 19.5 | 10.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.4%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.04 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 16W 17D 17L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 23W 18D 9L from 50 games, 1.74 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjallby AIF.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.58 PPG from 24 outings (10W 8D 6L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 11W 8D 5L from 24 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.66 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 16W 17D 17L in their last 50 games (1.30 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 23W 18D 9L in their last 50 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.58 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mjallby AIF
4
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 2, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 46%, IF Elfsborg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Mjallby AIF) and 46% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 38%; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 54% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 46% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IF Elfsborg 4-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 0.64 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.04 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Elfsborg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.55 / defence 0.79 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.23 / defence 0.80, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 20% | Draw 37% | IF Elfsborg 43%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Mjallby AIF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 44%, IF Elfsborg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Mjallby AIF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.