Mjallby AIF 0-3 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Hammarby FF at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hammarby FF — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Mjallby AIF's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 1 for Hammarby FF and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Hammarby FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mjallby AIF trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hammarby FF trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 40% versus Hammarby FF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 31% | Hammarby FF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.05 xG and Hammarby FF 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.853 / defence 1.128 | Hammarby FF attack 1.001 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.176. Data: 55 Mjallby AIF games / 55 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 27% | Draw 32% | Hammarby FF 41%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Hammarby FF 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Mjallby AIF 100% | Hammarby FF 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 27% | Draw 32% | Hammarby FF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.05 / Hammarby FF 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.853 / def 1.128 | Hammarby FF attack 1.001 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Hammarby FF xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 3 Hammarby FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 27% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
Record (2 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 0 | Hammarby FF 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
27%
3.66
32%
3.15
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.38
1.33
Hammarby FF xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
7%
13.81
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.33 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 17W 21D 17L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 28W 15D 12L from 55 games, 1.80 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hammarby FF are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjallby AIF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (9W 11D 7L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 9W 8D 10L from 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.87 scored and 1.15 conceded. Hammarby FF's attacking output running into Mjallby AIF's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Hammarby FF in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 17W 21D 17L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 28W 15D 12L in their last 55 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.41 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
5
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, Hammarby FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 3-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 48%, Hammarby FF 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Mjallby AIF) and 44% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 33%; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 26% of games; Hammarby FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 48% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 44% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Mjallby AIF 0-3 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.05 xG and Hammarby FF 1.33 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.85 / defence 1.13 against Hammarby FF attack 1.00 / defence 0.83, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 27% | Draw 32% | Hammarby FF 41%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 31%, Hammarby FF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.