Mjallby AIF 1-1 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mjallby AIF face Gais.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gais make the trip to Strandvallen to face Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
Mjallby AIF (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mjallby AIF's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gais have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Gais's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.60 for Gais. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Gais edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Mjallby AIF 1–1 Gais — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 50% versus Gais 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 48% | Gais 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.47 xG and Gais 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.029 / defence 0.959 | Gais attack 0.958 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.346. Data: built from Mjallby AIF's last 31 games and Gais's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 43% | Draw 26% | Gais 32%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.35 | Draw 3.91 | Gais 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mjallby AIF's last 10 home games and Gais's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mjallby AIF 90% (last 10 home games) | Gais 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Mjallby AIF 31 games, Gais 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 2 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 43% | Draw 26% | Gais 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Mjallby AIF 1.47 / Gais 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.029 / def 0.959 | Gais attack 0.958 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Gais xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Gais FAQs
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Gais kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Gais kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 Gais.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Gais part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Gais is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 2) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 43% chance of winning, Gais a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Gais will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mjallby AIF vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.96x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Mjallby AIF's last 31 games and Gais's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
43%
2.35
26%
3.91
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.71
1.24
Gais xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Gais Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.24 for Gais, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 26W 13D 21L from 60 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 31W 12D 17L across 60 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.75 for Gais. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 13W 8D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gais's away record stands at 13W 6D 11L across their last 30 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.62 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Gais in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Gais
Current Season
Mjallby AIF (Home) vs Gais (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Gais
Current Season
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Gais Form FAQs
What form are Mjallby AIF and Gais in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 26W 13D 21L in their last 60 games (1.52 PPG), while Gais have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Gais away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.57 PPG; Gais away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Gais in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won Mjallby AIF 0-3 Gais on 20 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Gais H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Gais?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Mjallby AIF have won 1, Gais have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Gais last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Mjallby AIF 0-3 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, Gais 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mjallby AIF) and 57% (Gais). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais in 33%; Gais in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Gais Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mjallby AIF and Gais matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 47% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mjallby AIF and Gais matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 57% of Gais's.
Do Mjallby AIF and Gais matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 70% of Gais's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and Gais share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 2, as Mjallby AIF and Gais drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.47 xG and Gais 1.24 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Gais attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 43% | Draw 26% | Gais 32%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 48%, Gais 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG, Gais 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.