Mjallby AIF 2-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 April 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Mjallby AIF (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mjallby AIF at Strandvallen this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 7D 0L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Degerfors IF's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Mjallby AIF register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Degerfors IF in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Mjallby AIF have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Degerfors IF managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Mjallby AIF a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 42% versus Degerfors IF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 35% | Degerfors IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.77 xG and Degerfors IF 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.032 / defence 1.141 | Degerfors IF attack 0.993 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.159. Data: 32 Mjallby AIF games / 32 Degerfors IF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 48% | Draw 24% | Degerfors IF 28%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Degerfors IF 3.57. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 90% | Degerfors IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 48% | Draw 24% | Degerfors IF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.77 / Degerfors IF 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.032 / def 1.141 | Degerfors IF attack 0.993 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Degerfors IF xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 48% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF?
Record (4 meetings): Mjallby AIF 3W | Draws 1 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 1.03x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.99x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.16
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
3.08
1.31
Degerfors IF xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
5%
20.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.31 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 20W 21D 19L from 60 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 29L across 60 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.08 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 10W 11D 9L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 5W 7D 18L across 30 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.10 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 20W 21D 19L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.37 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Mjallby AIF have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-1 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
8
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 8, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 1-4 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 50%, Degerfors IF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Mjallby AIF) and 50% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 27% of games; Degerfors IF in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 53% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 50% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Degerfors IF 2-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.77 xG and Degerfors IF 1.31 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.03 / defence 1.14 against Degerfors IF attack 0.99 / defence 1.16, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 48% | Draw 24% | Degerfors IF 28%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 35%, Degerfors IF 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.35 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.