Mjallby AIF 1-0 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
BK Hacken travel to Strandvallen to take on Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mjallby AIF stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Mjallby AIF's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, BK Hacken have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BK Hacken away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Mjallby AIF have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Mjallby AIF have won 4, BK Hacken 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Apr 2025, ended Mjallby AIF 3–0 BK Hacken — a Mjallby AIF win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 61% versus BK Hacken 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 51% | BK Hacken 63%). Note also that BK Hacken surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Mjallby AIF recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 62% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.52 xG and BK Hacken 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.010 / defence 0.703 | BK Hacken attack 1.061 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.408. Mjallby AIF have a tight defence (rating 0.703), which is pulling BK Hacken's projected output down. Data: built from Mjallby AIF's last 59 games and BK Hacken's last 59.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 30% | BK Hacken 24%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.17 | Draw 3.35 | BK Hacken 4.15. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mjallby AIF 50% (last 10 home games) | BK Hacken 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 30 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 9 November 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 30% | BK Hacken 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Mjallby AIF 1.52 / BK Hacken 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.010 / def 0.703 | BK Hacken attack 1.061 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.05
BK Hacken xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken FAQs
What time does Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 0 BK Hacken.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken part of?
Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 30) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 46% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (1.01) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mjallby AIF's last 59 games and BK Hacken's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.35
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.57
1.05
BK Hacken xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
5%
19.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.05 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 36W 14D 9L from 59 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 24L across 59 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mjallby AIF by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over BK Hacken heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 19W 9D 1L from their last 29 home games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 11W 7D 11L across their last 29 away games, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.63 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
Mjallby AIF (Home) vs BK Hacken (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken Form FAQs
What form are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 36W 14D 9L in their last 59 games (2.07 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 21W 14D 24L in their last 59 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or BK Hacken away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.28 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from July 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Jun 2023, when BK Hacken won BK Hacken 3-0 Mjallby AIF.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
4
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mjallby AIF have won 5, BK Hacken have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: BK Hacken 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 69%, BK Hacken 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Mjallby AIF) and 62% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; BK Hacken in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Mjallby AIF's games and 45% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 62% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 83% of BK Hacken's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out BK Hacken 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat BK Hacken 1-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.52 xG and BK Hacken 1.05 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. BK Hacken landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.01 / defence 0.70 against BK Hacken attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 30% | BK Hacken 24%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 51%, BK Hacken 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
BK Hacken's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.