Mjallby AIF 2-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees BK Hacken travel to Strandvallen to take on Mjallby AIF. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 29 May 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BK Hacken away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mjallby AIF at 1.30 PPG versus BK Hacken's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Mjallby AIF have won 2, BK Hacken 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 43% versus BK Hacken 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 38% | BK Hacken 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.97 xG and BK Hacken 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.064 / defence 0.943 | BK Hacken attack 0.975 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.340. Data: 41 Mjallby AIF games / 41 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 54% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 24%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | BK Hacken 4.17. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 62% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 50% | BK Hacken 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 54% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.97 / BK Hacken 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.064 / def 0.943 | BK Hacken attack 0.975 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.23
BK Hacken xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 29 May 2024 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken part of?
Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 54% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
Record (6 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 1 | BK Hacken 3W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (1.06) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
54%
1.84
22%
4.57
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
3.20
1.23
BK Hacken xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
3%
30.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.23 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 23W 15D 22L from 60 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 36W 13D 11L across 60 games — 2.02 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours BK Hacken by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjallby AIF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 9W 9D 12L from 30 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 13W 9D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.30 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 73%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 36W 13D 11L in their last 60 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or BK Hacken away?
BK Hacken's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.20 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2023, when BK Hacken won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
4
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 5, BK Hacken have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, BK Hacken 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjallby AIF) and 57% (BK Hacken).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mjallby AIF's games and 67% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 57% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out BK Hacken 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat BK Hacken 2-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.97 xG and BK Hacken 1.23 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.06 / defence 0.94 against BK Hacken attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 54% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 24%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 38%, BK Hacken 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with Mjallby AIF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.