Malmo FF 3-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 80% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Malmo FF vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIF Sundsvall make the trip to Eleda Stadion to face Malmo FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Malmo FF have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Eleda Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eleda Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Malmo FF are significantly better at Eleda Stadion than their overall form suggests.
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Malmo FF. A 0.80 PPG lead over GIF Sundsvall (1.50 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Malmo FF lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Malmo FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 51% versus GIF Sundsvall 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 53% | GIF Sundsvall 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 2.55 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.225 / defence 0.809 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.617 / defence 1.412. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.101. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.412 — this is suppressing Malmo FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Malmo FF games / 17 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 80% | Draw 15% | GIF Sundsvall 5%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 1.25 | Draw 6.67 | GIF Sundsvall 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Malmo FF (80%) — a 75pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Malmo FF as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Malmo FF 50% | GIF Sundsvall 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 80% | Draw 15% | GIF Sundsvall 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 40% | xG Malmo FF 2.55 / GIF Sundsvall 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.225 / def 0.809 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.617 / def 1.412 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
0.55
GIF Sundsvall xG
40%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Malmo FF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Malmo FF 3 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Malmo FF vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Malmo FF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 80% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 5% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Malmo FF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): Malmo FF 0W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Malmo FF and GIF Sundsvall in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 1.23x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 2.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.62x) against Malmo FF's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.55.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
80%
1.25
15%
6.89
5%
18.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
3.10
0.55
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.25
80%
Home win
6.89
15%
Draw
18.48
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
8%
12.77
Win to Nil
46%
2.16
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Malmo FF and 0.55 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Malmo FF's recent record stands at 26W 11D 10L from 47 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 20L across 47 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIF Sundsvall heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Malmo FF have managed 14W 6D 3L from 23 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 6W 5D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Malmo FF are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.32 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 26W 11D 10L in their last 47 games (1.89 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 9D 20L in their last 47 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.09 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Malmo FF
0
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 2 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 1, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2022, when Malmo FF 3-1 GIF Sundsvall.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 61%, GIF Sundsvall 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Malmo FF) and 44% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play GIF Sundsvall?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Malmo FF's games and 56% of GIF Sundsvall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Malmo FF vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Malmo FF's recent games and 44% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Malmo FF and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Malmo FF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat GIF Sundsvall 3-1 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 2.55 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.55 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.23 / defence 0.81 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.62 / defence 1.41, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 80% | Draw 15% | GIF Sundsvall 5%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 80%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 53%, GIF Sundsvall 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.34. That form edge translated into the three points. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.