Malmo FF 1-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Malmo FF host Djurgardens IF at Eleda Stadion in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Malmo FF — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Malmo FF have posted 7W 2D 1L at Eleda Stadion — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Malmo FF are significantly better at Eleda Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Djurgardens IF have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Malmo FF at 1.70 PPG versus Djurgardens IF's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Malmo FF in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 65% versus Djurgardens IF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 69% | Djurgardens IF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.41 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.284 / defence 1.025 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.923 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.087. Malmo FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 1.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.769 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Malmo FF games / 48 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 44% | Draw 31% | Djurgardens IF 25%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Djurgardens IF 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Malmo FF 70% | Djurgardens IF 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 44% | Draw 31% | Djurgardens IF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Malmo FF 1.41 / Djurgardens IF 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.284 / def 1.025 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.923 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Djurgardens IF xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Malmo FF 1 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 44% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Malmo FF's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Malmo FF's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
44%
2.29
31%
3.23
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.44
1.03
Djurgardens IF xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
6%
16.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Malmo FF and 1.03 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Malmo FF come into this having played 48 games, going 27W 13D 8L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.77 PPG from 48 outings (25W 10D 13L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Malmo FF on 1.96 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Malmo FF's home form reads 16W 6D 1L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.61 points per game from 23 outings (11W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Malmo FF are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.62 scored and 0.98 conceded. Malmo FF's scoring rate against Djurgardens IF's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 27W 13D 8L in their last 48 games (1.96 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 25W 10D 13L in their last 48 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.35 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2022, when Djurgardens IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Malmo FF's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Malmo FF
2
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 4, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 0-1 Malmo FF.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 65%, Djurgardens IF 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Malmo FF) and 44% (Djurgardens IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 39%; Djurgardens IF in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Malmo FF's recent matches and 39% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Malmo FF's matches and 44% of Djurgardens IF's.
Do Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 19, as Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.41 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.03 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.28 / defence 1.02 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.92 / defence 0.77, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 44% | Draw 31% | Djurgardens IF 25%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 69%, Djurgardens IF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Malmo FF 1.96 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.