Kalmar FF 1-0 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 56%, yet in-form Kalmar FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kalmar FF vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Jonkopings Sodra in Allsvenskan, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Sunday 13 December 2020 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Kalmar FF's home record at Guldfågeln Arena: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Guldfågeln Arena this season.
Jonkopings Sodra (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Jonkopings Sodra have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Kalmar FF's 1.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Jonkopings Sodra's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Kalmar FF 1W, Jonkopings Sodra 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2020, ended 3–1 with Kalmar FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 0.70 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.532 / defence 1.312 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.364. Kalmar FF's attack strength of 0.532 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Kalmar FF games / 0 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 16% | Draw 27% | Jonkopings Sodra 56%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 6.25 | Draw 3.70 | Jonkopings Sodra 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Jonkopings Sodra (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kalmar FF (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Allsvenskan, Relegation Round | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2020, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 16% | Draw 27% | Jonkopings Sodra 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG Kalmar FF 0.70 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.532 / def 1.312 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Jonkopings Sodra xG
40%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 13 December 2020 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Kalmar FF 1 - 0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Kalmar FF vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Relegation Round fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 16% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Kalmar FF and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (1 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 0 | Jonkopings Sodra 0W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.53x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jonkopings Sodra's attack (0.85x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
16%
6.08
27%
3.68
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.22
1.52
Jonkopings Sodra xG
6.08
16%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
4%
27.82
28%
3.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 16.5 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.52 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kalmar FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jonkopings Sodra, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kalmar FF by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jonkopings Sodra heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalmar FF have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Jonkopings Sodra in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Early Season
Jonkopings Sodra
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 December 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
0
Draws
0
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 2 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2020, when Kalmar FF 1-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Jonkopings Sodra?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Jonkopings Sodra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Kalmar FF's games and 100% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kalmar FF vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Kalmar FF's matches and 100% of Jonkopings Sodra's.
Do Kalmar FF and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kalmar FF defy the odds to beat Jonkopings Sodra 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Jonkopings Sodra 1-0 at Guldfågeln Arena, Relegation Round, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 0.70 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.52 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jonkopings Sodra landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.53 / defence 1.31 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 16% | Draw 27% | Jonkopings Sodra 56%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Kalmar FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 100%, Jonkopings Sodra 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Kalmar FF arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kalmar FF managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Jonkopings Sodra managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.