Kalmar FF 0-0 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees AIK Stockholm travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 August 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guldfågeln Arena, Kalmar FF have gone 1W 1D 3L this season (5 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 2W 1D 3L from 6 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Kalmar FF) versus 0.90 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 64% versus AIK Stockholm 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 73% | AIK Stockholm 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.58 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 1.045 / defence 1.303 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.807 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.226. AIK Stockholm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing Kalmar FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Kalmar FF games / 11 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 43% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 31%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | AIK Stockholm 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kalmar FF at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 80% | AIK Stockholm 17%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 43% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Kalmar FF 1.58 / AIK Stockholm 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 1.045 / def 1.303 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.807 / def 1.349 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.29
AIK Stockholm xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 2 August 2020 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Kalmar FF 0 - 0 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 43% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 1.04x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
43%
2.30
26%
3.84
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.87
1.29
AIK Stockholm xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
6%
15.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.29 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kalmar FF come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 2D 7L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalmar FF on 0.73 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kalmar FF's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.00 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalmar FF have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Kalmar FF's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 0.80 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AIK Stockholm have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kalmar FF
3
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when AIK Stockholm 1-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 80%, AIK Stockholm 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Kalmar FF and 40% for AIK Stockholm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 20% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Kalmar FF's matches and 40% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kalmar FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 12, as Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.58 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.29 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kalmar FF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. AIK Stockholm landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.04 / defence 1.30 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.81 / defence 1.35, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 43% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 31%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 73%, AIK Stockholm 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 0.73 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.