IFK Varnamo 2-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as IFK Varnamo take on Mjallby AIF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Mjallby AIF travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 October 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 4W 4D 2L at Finnvedsvallen — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Finnvedsvallen.
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IFK Varnamo at 1.50 PPG versus Mjallby AIF's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for IFK Varnamo, 0 for Mjallby AIF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 49% versus Mjallby AIF 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (IFK Varnamo 45% | Mjallby AIF 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 0.78 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.812 / defence 1.013 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.721 / defence 0.645. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.136. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.645 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 23 IFK Varnamo games / 53 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 29% | Draw 40% | Mjallby AIF 31%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 3.45 | Draw 2.50 | Mjallby AIF 3.23. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — IFK Varnamo's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 50% | Mjallby AIF 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 3 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 29% | Draw 40% | Mjallby AIF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 33% | xG IFK Varnamo 0.78 / Mjallby AIF 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.812 / def 1.013 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.721 / def 0.645 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Mjallby AIF xG
33%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 October 2022 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
IFK Varnamo 2 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 29% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 31% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Varnamo 0W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 0W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.81x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.65x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.47
40%
2.52
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
1.61
0.83
Mjallby AIF xG
3.47
29%
Home win
2.52
40%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.04
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.9 | 16.5 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.6%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.83 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 53 games, going 25W 12D 16L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.34 PPG from 53 outings (17W 20D 16L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.64 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 15W 7D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.27 points per game from 26 outings (8W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.06 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 25W 12D 16L in their last 53 games (1.64 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 17W 20D 16L in their last 53 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Mjallby AIF away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 2.00 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.27 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjallby AIF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2025, when Mjallby AIF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
2
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2025, when IFK Varnamo 0-5 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 46%, Mjallby AIF 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for IFK Varnamo and 23% for Mjallby AIF.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 46%; Mjallby AIF in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 27% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 23% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as IFK Varnamo defy the odds to beat Mjallby AIF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Mjallby AIF 2-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.78 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.83 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.81 / defence 1.01 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.72 / defence 0.65, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 29% | Draw 40% | Mjallby AIF 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual IFK Varnamo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 45%, Mjallby AIF 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.64 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.