IFK Varnamo 1-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Finnvedsvallen plays host to IFK Varnamo versus GIF Sundsvall in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Monday 11 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Varnamo have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's home record at Finnvedsvallen: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — IFK Varnamo are significantly better at Finnvedsvallen than their overall form suggests.
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for IFK Varnamo, 0.90 for GIF Sundsvall — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — IFK Varnamo have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, GIF Sundsvall in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: IFK Varnamo 1W, GIF Sundsvall 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
IFK Varnamo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 43% versus GIF Sundsvall 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 40% | GIF Sundsvall 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.63 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.746 / defence 0.875 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.741 / defence 1.478. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.077. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.478 — this is suppressing IFK Varnamo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 IFK Varnamo games / 12 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 60% | Draw 25% | GIF Sundsvall 16%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | GIF Sundsvall 6.25. The model has a clear lean to IFK Varnamo (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: IFK Varnamo 60% | GIF Sundsvall 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 11 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 60% | Draw 25% | GIF Sundsvall 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 40% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.63 / GIF Sundsvall 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.746 / def 0.875 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.741 / def 1.478 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.70
GIF Sundsvall xG
40%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 11 July 2022 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 60% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (2 meetings): IFK Varnamo 1W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.75x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.74x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
60%
1.68
25%
4.05
16%
6.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.33
0.70
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
6.38
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
3%
32.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.70 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IFK Varnamo's recent record stands at 21W 8D 13L from 42 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 16L across 42 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for IFK Varnamo against 1.48 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IFK Varnamo have managed 13W 4D 3L from 20 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — IFK Varnamo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 6W 4D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 21W 8D 13L in their last 42 games (1.69 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 8D 16L in their last 42 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 2.15 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.10 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
IFK Varnamo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Varnamo won 3-0 on 14 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall?
From 5 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2026, when IFK Varnamo 3-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 40%, GIF Sundsvall 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (IFK Varnamo) and 45% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 60% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 45% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 13, as IFK Varnamo and GIF Sundsvall drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.63 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.70 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.75 / defence 0.88 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.74 / defence 1.48, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 60% | Draw 25% | GIF Sundsvall 16%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 40%, GIF Sundsvall 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.69 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.